Sea level rise, accompanied by climate change, is expected to exacerbate seawater intrusion in the coastal groundwater system. As the salinity of saturated groundwater increases, salinity can increase even in the unsaturated soil above the groundwater surface, which may cause crop damage in the agricultural land. The other adverse impact of sea level rise is reduced unsaturated soil thicknesses. In this study, a composite model to assess impacts of sea level rise in coastal agricultural land is proposed. The composite model is based on the combined applications of a three dimensional model for simulating saltwater intrusion into the groundwater and a vertical one dimensional model for simulating unsaturated zone flow and transport. The water level and salinity distribution of groundwater are calculated using the three dimensional seawater intrusion model. At some uppermost nodes, where salinity are higher than the reference value, of the 3D mesh one dimensional unsaturated zone modeling is conducted along the soil layer between the ground water surface and the ground surface. A particular location is judged salinized when the concentration at the root-zone depth exceeds the tolerable salinity for ordinary crops. The developed model is applied to a hypothetical agricultural reclamation land. IPCC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as sea level rise data. Results are presented for 2050 and 2100. As a result of the study, it is predicted that by 2100 in the climate change scenario RCP 8.5, there will be 7.8% increase in groundwater saltwater-intruded area, 6.0% increase of salinized soil area, and 1.6% in increase in water-logging area.

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