Frequency analysis of storm surge using Poisson-Generalized Pareto distribution
Kim, Tae-Jeong1 Kwon, Hyun-Han2,* Shin, Young-Seok3
1Research Fellow, Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University 2Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University 3Professor, Department of Information & Communication Engineering, Honam University
The Korean Peninsula is considered as one of the most typhoon related disaster prone areas. In particular, the potential risk of flooding in coastal areas would be greater when storm surge and heavy rainfall occurred at the same time. In this context, understanding the mechanism of the interactions between them and estimating the risk associated with the concurrent occurrence are of particular interests especially in low-lying coastal areas. In this study, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto (Poisson-GP) distribution based storm surge frequency analysis model to combine the occurrence of the exceedance of a threshold, that is the peaks over threshold (POT), within a Bayesian framework. The storm surge frequency analysis technique developed through this study might contribute to the improvement of disaster prevention technology related to storm surge in the coastal area.
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